Track Record

Validation Archive

Live out-of-sample results and backtested regime validation.

Live Track Record·SINCE MAY 1, 2026·N = 34 CALLS·UPDATED 2026-05-22ACTIVE

T+5 BRIER

0.234

0.234 [0.206–0.261]

Fair calibration

n=34

T+5 WIN RATE

+14.7%

14.7% [6.4%–30.1%]

vs 50% random baseline

n=34

T+20 BRIER

—

— [0.000–0.000]

Awaiting T+5 validation

n=0

T+20 WIN RATE

—

—% [0.0%–0.0%]

Awaiting validation

n=0

Sample size note: 34 validated calls since May 2026. Statistical significance for win rate estimates typically requires ~200 calls. The Brier score is informative at smaller sample sizes — it measures calibration quality, not just directional accuracy.

Cumulative T+5 Log-Return (%)

Max DD: -1.2%

EUR/USD Accuracy History (30-Window)

0.0%BELOW BASELINE

Target55.0%EUR/USD expansion gate

GATE

45%50%55%60%

30-Day History

Days Above Gate0/11

Current Streak-11d

Best Window0.0%

Gap to Gate55.0pp

Rolling 10-Call Brier Score

Accuracy by Regime Type · T5

PAIR	Risk-On	Risk-Off	Transitional
EUR/USD	—	—	0.0% [0.0%–25.9%]n=11
USD/JPY	—	0.0% [0.0%–39.0%]n=6	50.0% [18.8%–81.2%]n=6
USD/INR	—	—	18.2% [5.1%–47.7%]n=11
ALL	—	0.0% [0.0%–39.0%]n=6	17.9% [7.9%–35.6%]n=28

Accuracy by Regime Type · T20

PAIR	Risk-On	Risk-Off	Transitional
EUR/USD	—	—	—
USD/JPY	—	—	—
USD/INR	—	—	—
ALL	—	—	—

Per-Pair Breakdown

PAIR	T+5 WIN	T+5 BRIER	T+5 90D	T+5 N	T+20 WIN	T+20 BRIER	T+20 90D	T+20 N
EUR/USD	+0.0%	0.203	0.0%	n=11	—	—	—	n=0
USD/JPY	+25.0%	0.281	25.0%	n=12	—	—	—	n=0
USD/INR	+18.2%	0.213	18.2%	n=11	—	—	—	n=0
ALL	+14.7%	0.234	14.7%	n=34	—	—	—	n=0

Validation History — T+5 / T+20

DATE	PAIR	PRED	T+5 RET	T+5 OUT	T+5 BRIER	T+20 RET	T+20 OUT	T+20 BRIER
2026-05-17	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+22.3	WRONG	0.346	—	—	—
2026-05-17	USD/INR	BEARISH	-35.7	CORRECT	0.281	—	—	—
2026-05-17	EUR/USD	BEARISH	-8.7	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-15	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+27.4	WRONG	0.343	—	—	—
2026-05-15	USD/INR	BEARISH	-24.5	CORRECT	0.281	—	—	—
2026-05-15	EUR/USD	BEARISH	-17.1	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-14	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+36.9	WRONG	0.342	—	—	—
2026-05-14	USD/INR	BEARISH	+51.1	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-14	EUR/USD	BEARISH	-37.5	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-13	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+67.1	WRONG	0.335	—	—	—
2026-05-13	USD/INR	BEARISH	+116.8	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-13	EUR/USD	BEARISH	-75.4	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-12	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+86.5	WRONG	0.336	—	—	—
2026-05-12	USD/INR	BEARISH	+93.6	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-12	EUR/USD	BEARISH	-112.1	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-11	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+102.7	WRONG	0.335	—	—	—
2026-05-10	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+120.7	WRONG	0.336	—	—	—
2026-05-10	USD/INR	BEARISH	+151.1	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-10	EUR/USD	BEARISH	-123.0	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-08	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+0.0	NEUTRAL	0.001	—	—	—
2026-05-08	USD/INR	BULLISH	+0.0	NEUTRAL	0.001	—	—	—
2026-05-08	EUR/USD	NEUTRAL	+0.0	NEUTRAL	0.001	—	—	—
2026-05-07	USD/JPY	BEARISH	+7.2	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-07	USD/INR	BULLISH	-14.6	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-07	EUR/USD	BEARISH	+35.9	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-06	USD/JPY	BEARISH	-67.2	CORRECT	0.281	—	—	—
2026-05-06	USD/INR	BULLISH	-75.2	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-06	EUR/USD	BEARISH	+62.9	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-05	USD/JPY	BEARISH	-36.5	CORRECT	0.281	—	—	—
2026-05-05	USD/INR	BULLISH	-83.2	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-05	EUR/USD	BEARISH	+83.2	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-04	USD/JPY	NEUTRAL	-14.4	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-04	USD/INR	BULLISH	-45.7	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-04	EUR/USD	BEARISH	+53.6	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-01	USD/JPY	BEARISH	-22.8	CORRECT	0.281	—	—	—
2026-05-01	USD/INR	BULLISH	-30.6	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—
2026-05-01	EUR/USD	BEARISH	+51.5	WRONG	0.221	—	—	—

T+5 AND T+20 DIRECTIONAL OUTCOMES. RETURNS ARE LOG-RETURNS IN BASIS POINTS RELATIVE TO CALL DIRECTION. RESEARCH ONLY — NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.