Credibility compounds through calendar discipline and honest validation, not marketing.
Daily macro regime calls for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and USD/INR.
Every call validated. Append-only by convention.
Directional accuracy is easy to game. Brier score measures calibration honesty — how well our confidence matches our accuracy.
0.239
Brier Score (T+5)
Fair calibration
Based on 19133 validated calls
29.6%
Win Rate (T+5)
vs 50% random baseline
52
Calls Published
Since May 2026
3
Pairs Tracked
EUR/USD · USD/JPY · USD/INR
Outcomes measured against next-day spot with a 5bps dead-band. Brier scores computed for directional calls. The lower the Brier, the better the calibration.
Full track record →Five signal families. One composite.
Each family is scored against its own history, then weighted by pair-specific calibration. The composite drives the regime label.
Rate Differentials
2Y sovereign yield spreads. Primary driver of medium-term FX regime direction.
COT Positioning
CFTC weekly non-commercial net positions as percentile ranks. Crowd and reversal signals.
Realized Volatility
5d and 20d realized vs 30d implied. Vol gate forces elevation above 90th percentile.
OI and Risk Reversals
Open interest flows and 25-delta risk reversals. INR-specific series included.
Special Factor
Pair-specific cross-asset signal — ECB sentiment for EUR/USD, JPY funding stress for USD/JPY, EM carry/RBI for USD/INR.
Shreyash Sakhare
EE Undergrad · Discretionary Macro Research
Macro researcher focused on systematic FX regime classification.
[RESEARCH ONLY] For research purposes only. These regime classifications are derived from a deterministic 3-layer signal framework and validated out-of-sample. Not investment advice. Past calibration metrics do not guarantee future performance.